Hey guys and girls
I'm studying Sports Journalism and decided to write the following season preview for one of my assessments. Thought I might as well try to share it to as many people as possible. Hope you guys get something out of it - all feedback more than welcome :)
It's obviously a pretty tough task predicting the season with so many variables and the comp being such a unique competition with AFL/VFL/Standalones, etc but i've given it a crack!!
I'm no where near brave enough to predict finals - so here is my end of the H&A season ladder predictions. When it comes to finals VFL Standalone clubs like Port Melbourne, Williamstown are more favoured than the AFL teams i reckon, unless the AFL teams are loaded with players
1. Werribee
I put the Tigers on top at the end of the home and away season. They've done well to hold on to so many quality VFL listed players despite going in a full alignment with North. I think they're really going to benefit from the full alignment gaining access to players like Joel Tippett. Trent Dumont who used to play for North Ballarat, as well as the Club recruiting Farren Ray who you'd imagine will be at VFL level for most of the year. Their VFL list despite losing Critchon, Bolton, Mihocek remains strong with the likes of Wilson, Sodomaco, Hussey, Gribble, Porter, Speight, etc. The biggest issue may be in fact keeping everyone happy and squeezing them all into the one team! I can imagine a few of the VFL guys being upset at missing out on playing seniors due to big North Melbourne numbers!
2. Williamstown
I would have had the Seagulls on top until they lost Sternberg & Matt Dea. I was surprised the Club didn't go out to recruit a midfielder after losing Banner, Marcon and Gallucci but thought they had the best off-season with Cordy, Siposs, Dea and Sternberg joining but obviously that changed a bit due to Essendon and the drugs scandal. The thing about the Seagulls is that they've always been able to bring in the best TAC Cup kids from lots of regions which has helped them win the last 3 development premierships. They'll be banking on one or two more Andrew Gallucci's emerging as senior players from their development team to help them go back to back
3. Footscray
Think the Dogs will be a solid team, and it's all due to their strong AFL list. Like a lot of AFL sides they're going to struggle when they don't have less than 12-14 AFL players, but i feel their AFL list bats significantly deep with plenty of good emerging kids. Mark Austin, Jordan Russell and the Hayes twins are pretty solid VFL players now as well which means they can cope with injuries better than most aligned/AFL sides. I can't see them missing the Top 8 and think they'll win enough games to make the Top 4.
4. Box Hill Hawks
I just can't see them any stronger than the past two years. They've lost David Hale, Brian Lake, Jed Anderson, Grimley, Simpkin from their AFL program, and then Sam Collins from their VFL program. Tatupu has already retired and injuries to Fitzpatrick and Roughead early will test their key position depth. Having said all that they're still an extremely talented Club which will win more games than most. Like Williamstown have always had great development depth and I think they'll call on this depth more this year. Alden Kennedy back and fit would be a big bonus, but not as big as a fit Mitch O'Donnell and Alex Woodward which just makes their midfield so much stronger.
5. Sandringham
I found the Zebra's the toughest to predict this year. On one hand they've lost Clint Jones, Mitch Brown, Arryn Siposs and Adam Cockie, but on the other hand I reckon the Saints young kids are getting better and their VFL depth is still better than most with the likes of Cook, Dennis-Lane, Le Grice, Burbury, Ong, Weickhardt. Hence i've probably sat on the fence a bit and got them just outside the 4. How will the Saints/Sandy relationship go in their last year?
6. Collingwood
Always competitive and always around the mark it's no doubt the Pies AFL list is better but I also think their VFL list is settled and getting better and better each year. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they challenge the Top 4 if they have a good run with injuries. Michael Still and Ryan Pendlebury are great VFL bookends and despite losing Keeffe and Thomas they'll be a tough side to beat and make the finals yet again. It's going to need to be a perfect year for them to have a serious challenge at the flag though.
7. Geelong
Looking at Geelong AFL's team on paper and then seeing the names left over makes the VFL side a scary thought. It's about time the cats VFL side becomes a force again and their off-season recruiting in the AFL suggests just that. Could we see Scott Selwood and Mitch Clark as VFL regulars this year? Always seems the injuries hurt the Cats more than most as they favour just recruiting local GFL players which doesn't give them as much depth in my opinion. I reckon their best side is up with the best of them which is why I see them winning enough games when they have minimal injuries to make the finals.
8. Port Melbourne
I thought the 'Burra had a good off-season but one thing I just can't understand is how they didn't recruit an experienced ruck man. It was the their biggest weakness last season and they've lost two promising types in Gilmore and Prowse. they've brought in a stack of recruits but surely a ruck man must have been the number one priority rather than bringing in midfielders galore. For this reason I can't see them making the Top 4 as they'll very rarely get first use. But surely they bounce back to make finals after the off-season additions of Dwyer, Golby, Iaccarino, Mihocek,etc. An Ayce Cordy or Michael Sikora would have been handy though.
9. Richmond
My team the Tigers are on the improve but recent injuries has made me push them out of the 8! I thought the rookie additions of Marcon and Broad would give the VFL team two pretty handy footballers at state league level along with the VFL recruits of Darley, Ballard and Couch who are all proven VFL performers! Midfield will be a strength with Couch, Marcon and Ballard starting more weeks and Darley gives some run outside. Still think we're a chance to make the 8 but as I said recent injuries to Conca, Yarran, Grigg has me less certain of this!
10. Coburg
Hats off to Coburg for their improvement in the past two seasons, a solid, if not spectacular off-season was highlighted by Ahmed Saad joining the Club however I think the loss of Hartley, Carnell, Venditti and Clifton will hurt the Club more than what most people will realise. Hopefully the next level of leadership can step up and I think Lachie Johns could be a player to watch this year. Still feel that with all their young TAC Cup talent they might be one year away from making finals, but you never know if a spot opens up down the bottom of the 8.
11. Casey Scorpions
Casey for mine, are the team most reliant on AFL talent. If they play 18 AFL players every week they make finals, simple as that. But if they have only 8-12 players then they'll get pumped. Just can't see much talent on the VFL list with VFL experience, they'll be blooding a lot of TAC Cup graduates and guys from local leagues which always takes a bit of time. Increased optimism around Melbourne may improve the relationship and make the fringe Melbourne players hungry
12. Essendon
On the cusp of a VFL Grand Final the bombers now find themselves scrambling to put a team together. It will be a tough year for the Club due to the sanctions with so many of their usual team up playing AFL. I actually think the strength of their VFL list and the quality of the top up players will make them stronger than what most people think and hence I don't have them right down the bottom. It is going to be a struggle though and I can't see them getting anywhere near their 2015 antics.
13. Northern Blues
Another summer of hype but not much substance at the Blues. Think they'll have some natural improvement from a Carlton point of view with Bolton coming in and all those fringe GWS players being traded in will improve their depth, but their VFL list leaves a lot to be desired. Will pinch a few wins when they have 15+ Carlton players, but I think we can expect to see the same one sides results once the injuries start to set in
14. North Ballarat
Until Williamstown in 2014 every VFL team starting off standalone had finished last in their first year. I see the Roosters avoiding this unwanted accolade but only just. Recruiting has been tough for the one time powerhouse with signings restricted to Louie Herbert and a lot of North Ballarat Rebels kids. Surprised by the lack of big name recruits to be honest and I think they'll struggle in their first year adjusting to their new status.
15. Frankston
Think they've gone about it the right way bringing in some fringe players from Casey, Box Hill and Sandy. Michael Sikora gives them a ruck man which will be a huge addition. After a winless season last year you can only hope they manage to pinch a couple of games at home and I feel they're better placed than last year to do so despite the loss of their captain Shane Hockey who leaves a hole. Just hope the season goes well for them on and off the field.
